3 thoughts on “Analysis of the seamless steel pipe industry”
Armando
According to the survey: The large-caliber seamless pipe inventory, stable supply, and the demand for downstream steel pipes are relatively weak. At present, the price of large-caliber seamless pipe markets is 200-400 yuan/ton lower than the cold pull tube. It is rare. On the 9th, the new unit assembly machine of Xinye Steel 273, the capacity of the large -caliber seamless tube further expanded. Compared with cold pull tubes, the sales pressure of hot -rolled seamless tubes. Nowadays, the profit of the pipeline is high, the price of the pipeline has declined. The recent orders are insufficient and coincided with the wheat harvest. Cold pull pipe production lines are still being produced, but the price of cold pull -out pipes has risen with the price of hot rolling tube billets. At present, the cold pull tube on the market is basically 44010 yuan/ton. As of press time, the ex -factory price of hot rolling tube blank continued to push high. On the one hand, the cost of pipelines continued to rise. The other side was that the market price rose weakly. It is estimated that this situation will be maintained in the near future. Shandong Liaocheng Xinghuo Steel Pipe Manufacturing Co., Ltd. will continue to observe the price of steel pipes and seamless steel pipes.
In April, the seamless pipe market continued the rise of last month. After mid-to-late, the impact of real estate regulation, and the impact of the preliminary anti-dumping tax of the United States on seamless pipes in China. The trend of a sharp rise and the pace of price to stop rising, especially in the late month, the seamless pipe prices in various places show a steady operation trend, and markets in various places have seen a strong look at. According to market monitoring, as of April 23, the average price of 108*4.5mm in the top ten key cities in the country was 5640 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 340 yuan from the same period last month. The monthly increase was 400-500 yuan, and the basic monthly increases in other regions such as Beijing, Xi'an, Wuhan and other regions were 250-350 yuan.
It May is the peak sales season of the steel market. The number of construction sites in various places has increased, and the demand has continued to improve. With the good mentality of circulating merchants and high -cost support, the market price is expected to continue to rise. However, because the production of seamless pipes in China has been high in recent months, and the export volume is still significantly lower than the same period of previous years. In addition, the impact of the United States' anti -dumping duty, the pressure on the seamless pipe market in the short term is still large. As a result, the pace and space of rising high inventory prices will be limited. It is expected that the seamless pipe market price will show a stable and consolidated trend in May.
. The output of seamless pipes increased year -on -year
In statistics of metallurgical product output in March 2010, the cumulative output of seamless pipes in China in the first quarter was 5.336 million tons, an increase of year -on -year increase 325,000 tons, an increase of 6.5%year -on -year. Crude steel and steel still maintain a high growth momentum of more than 20%in the first quarter. As far as the varieties of steel are concerned, the year -on -year increase in seamless pipes in the first quarter has dropped to the fourth place.
The March produced a total of 2.07 million tons of seamless steel pipes, an increase of 132,000 tons year -on -year, an increase of 6.8%year -on -year. It increased by 581,000 tons in February and 39%month -on -month.
In regional production data, 10 of the 25 major production provinces in seamless pipes in the first quarter increased negatively year -on -year, of which Heilongjiang and Qinghai decreased the largest, which was 51.4%and 50 compared with the same period last year, respectively. %; Tianjin and Sichuan, the maximum output decreased by 100,000 tons and 68,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among the 15 increasing regions, the top two in the ranking of production are Jiangsu and Tianjin, which are 870,000 tons and 111,000 tons from the same period last year. The same period last year increased by 250.00%and 210.00%.
In in the case of the previous month, in the top 10 areas in March, except for Henan and Hunan, the output decreased compared to last month. Essence The output in Hunan decreased by 3.26%month -on -month, and the Henan region decreased by 3.5%from the previous month. The increase in production in the Hebei River area was the largest, an increase of 173.53%from the previous month. The top five areas are Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei, and Tianjin, respectively, with an increase of 115,000 tons, 84,000 tons, 75,000 tons, 59,000 tons and 49,000 tons over February.
In the level of daily output changes, the daily average daily output changes in the first quarter of 2010 showed a V -shaped trend, consistent with the changes in 2008. According to the current situation of the steel mills that we know, the capacity utilization rate in April has entered the uplink cycle with the recovery of the market. We expect that the average daily output in April will still grow on the basis of March. The average daily output in March increased by 25.55%from the previous month.
The area of seamless pipes in the first quarter is mainly the three Eastern provinces. Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and Sichuan. Except for the scarce number of state -owned enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the remaining several areas are in the area where state -owned enterprises are located. Essence In general, the situation of insufficient orders for state -owned enterprises in the first quarter still exists, and the capacity utilization rate is still lower than the same period last year. Increasing Henan and Shandong regions with large output, due to the optimistic of the traders' pair of market outlook, increased the price in advance, increased orders to increase the production of the region.
. The seamless pipes and exports in my country increased year -on -year.
The seamless pipe exports in January and March increased significantly.
In the latest statistics of the customs, the exports were 278,700 tons in March 2010, an increase of 6,100 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 2.24%year -on -year. Compared with February, the export volume of seamless pipes in March increased, and the exports increased by 52,100 tons over the previous month, an increase of 22.99%month -on -month.
The variety of divided varieties, the export volume of oil and natural gas seamless pipes, petroleum natural gas drilling pipes has increased significantly from February, and the oil and natural gas tract seamless pipes, oil and natural gas drilling seamless pipes The increase of 28,700 tons and 15,200 tons from February; the seamless tube, boiler tube and other seamless tubes of geological drills decreased by 65.64 tons, 00,300 tons, and 74,200 tons compared with February.
The imports of seamless pipes in the 2nd and March increased slightly from the previous month.
The imported seamless tube in March 2010 was 21,900 tons, which was 16,000 tons from imports less than the same period last year, and a decrease of 42.22%year -on -year. It imported 0.21 million tons over February, an increase of 10.61%month -on -month.
The varieties, in March, the import volume of oil and natural gas seamless pipes, geological drill seams, boiler tubes and other seamless pipes increased from the previous month. Extraction of 00,900 tons, 88.98 tons, 44,000 tons, and 01,000 tons, an increase of 225%, 167.89%, 86.96%, and 15.15%from the previous month.
The import volume of seamless pipes of oil and gas drilling was reduced in February, which was 0.25 million tons from imports in February, and decreased by 30.86%from the previous month.
The imported proportion of imports is the boiler tube and other seamless tubes, which account for 39.27%and 34.25%of the import volume of the month. Increased, the import volume of geological drills in March increased by 88.98 tons from February, an increase of 167.879%from the previous month.
In April, the domestic seamless pipe market will be stable
In the domestic seamless pipe market continues to rise in April, the rise has slowed down significantly, showing a steady stability, showing a steady stability The current situation of high and small, and the market has obvious signs of high passivation stagnation. The situation of small market resources has not improved. At present, the management of the pipelines and production restrictions have not improved. After the factory prices are transferred from large pipe factories, the mainstream prices of private management factories have a stable quotation, which also restricts one of the main factors of market stability to a certain extent. The market is expected to be steadily adjusted in May.
1. The seamless pipe market needs in May are expected to be optimistic
entering May, and the demand for downstream seamless pipes will improve significantly. Especially in the environment where seamless pipe prices are rising rapidly in March and April, the downstream construction sites are mostly purchased in the current use of currently available, and the project has less stocking. As the construction volume of the project is enlarged, this part of the demand will be concentrated. Judging from the latest released data, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in fixed assets in cities and towns in the country in the first quarter increased by 26.4%year -on -year. At the same time, the value added value of industries above designated size in March increased by 18.1%year -on -year, which was 5.3 percentage points accelerated from February. Among them, the added value of general equipment manufacturing industries increased by 22.3%year -on -year, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from February; transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 30.1%, which was 1.7 percentage points accelerated from February. The monthly acceleration of 6.1 percentage points; the manufacturing industry of communications equipment and computers and electronic equipment increased by 19.5%, an acceleration of 2.9 percentage points from February; the production and supply industry of power thermal power increased by 13%, which was 2.7 percentage points accelerated from February; The pressure extension industry increased by 18%, which accelerated by 3 percentage points from February. This shows that after the negative impact of my country's economy getting rid of the global financial crisis, the endogenous power of economic growth has gradually recovered and continued to increase, and the demand for steel has continued to grow.
. Cost support seamless pipes are higher. The quarterly price of Japan and South Korea has been accepted by Japan and South Korea to purchase iron ore from the three major mines. This year's iron ore negotiation may also end in this form. According to the quarterly price signed by Japan and South Korea and Brazil Tamsui River Valley, the offshore price of the Brazilian mine is about $ 110 per ton, an increase of 96.4%over the 2009 -year -old cooperative price. At present, domestic steel companies are already using this price for procurement. If calculated by 96.4%of the increase, the annual cost expenditure of my country's steel industry will increase by about 90 billion yuan, and the profit of my country's steel industry in 2009 is only 69 billion yuan, which is self -evident. The sharp rise in the cost of steel mills has been unavoidable, which directly leads to an increase in the production cost of domestic steel mills nearly 1,000 yuan. Judging from the factory price of major domestic steel mills, on April 23, Tonggang Panshi rose 400 yuan to seamless pipe products. On April 19, Tianjin Steel Pipe Group rose 200 yuan for seamless pipe products. For the seamless pipe export price in May, the factory price was raised by 500 yuan. On the 19th, Pancheng Steel raised the factory price of seamless pipes by 200 yuan. On the 21st, Baosteel's overall price of seamless pipes was raised by 400 yuan. It will promote the market to further move closer to high positions.
3. High -priced resources limit demand for release
The high -level operation pressure in domestic steel market has begun to appear. Facing the price adjustment of steel mills, the dealers have begun to be afraid of high prices, right, right, right, right, right, right, right The views of the market are also very cautious. The price rising too fast has also triggered the wait -and -see psychology of end users. Many downstream industries can no longer bear the rise in price, and the procurement method generally converts it. Undoubtedly, some effective demand will be postponed or offset.
4. The United States imposes anti -dumping tax on seamless pipes in my country
The US Department of Commerce to set the punitive tariff rate of China's seamless steel pipe products at the United States on the 22nd to 32 %To 98%, the final ruling is expected to be issued in September. The decision is a victory of the American Iron and Steel Corporation (), V
According to the survey: The large-caliber seamless pipe inventory, stable supply, and the demand for downstream steel pipes are relatively weak. At present, the price of large-caliber seamless pipe markets is 200-400 yuan/ton lower than the cold pull tube. It is rare. On the 9th, the new unit assembly machine of Xinye Steel 273, the capacity of the large -caliber seamless tube further expanded. Compared with cold pull tubes, the sales pressure of hot -rolled seamless tubes. Nowadays, the profit of the pipeline is high, the price of the pipeline has declined. The recent orders are insufficient and coincided with the wheat harvest. Cold pull pipe production lines are still being produced, but the price of cold pull -out pipes has risen with the price of hot rolling tube billets. At present, the cold pull tube on the market is basically 44010 yuan/ton. As of press time, the ex -factory price of hot rolling tube blank continued to push high. On the one hand, the cost of pipelines continued to rise. The other side was that the market price rose weakly. It is estimated that this situation will be maintained in the near future. Shandong Liaocheng Xinghuo Steel Pipe Manufacturing Co., Ltd. will continue to observe the price of steel pipes and seamless steel pipes.
In April, the seamless pipe market continued the rise of last month. After mid-to-late, the impact of real estate regulation, and the impact of the preliminary anti-dumping tax of the United States on seamless pipes in China. The trend of a sharp rise and the pace of price to stop rising, especially in the late month, the seamless pipe prices in various places show a steady operation trend, and markets in various places have seen a strong look at. According to market monitoring, as of April 23, the average price of 108*4.5mm in the top ten key cities in the country was 5640 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 340 yuan from the same period last month. The monthly increase was 400-500 yuan, and the basic monthly increases in other regions such as Beijing, Xi'an, Wuhan and other regions were 250-350 yuan.
It May is the peak sales season of the steel market. The number of construction sites in various places has increased, and the demand has continued to improve. With the good mentality of circulating merchants and high -cost support, the market price is expected to continue to rise. However, because the production of seamless pipes in China has been high in recent months, and the export volume is still significantly lower than the same period of previous years. In addition, the impact of the United States' anti -dumping duty, the pressure on the seamless pipe market in the short term is still large. As a result, the pace and space of rising high inventory prices will be limited. It is expected that the seamless pipe market price will show a stable and consolidated trend in May.
. The output of seamless pipes increased year -on -year
In statistics of metallurgical product output in March 2010, the cumulative output of seamless pipes in China in the first quarter was 5.336 million tons, an increase of year -on -year increase 325,000 tons, an increase of 6.5%year -on -year. Crude steel and steel still maintain a high growth momentum of more than 20%in the first quarter. As far as the varieties of steel are concerned, the year -on -year increase in seamless pipes in the first quarter has dropped to the fourth place.
The March produced a total of 2.07 million tons of seamless steel pipes, an increase of 132,000 tons year -on -year, an increase of 6.8%year -on -year. It increased by 581,000 tons in February and 39%month -on -month.
In regional production data, 10 of the 25 major production provinces in seamless pipes in the first quarter increased negatively year -on -year, of which Heilongjiang and Qinghai decreased the largest, which was 51.4%and 50 compared with the same period last year, respectively. %; Tianjin and Sichuan, the maximum output decreased by 100,000 tons and 68,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among the 15 increasing regions, the top two in the ranking of production are Jiangsu and Tianjin, which are 870,000 tons and 111,000 tons from the same period last year. The same period last year increased by 250.00%and 210.00%.
In in the case of the previous month, in the top 10 areas in March, except for Henan and Hunan, the output decreased compared to last month. Essence The output in Hunan decreased by 3.26%month -on -month, and the Henan region decreased by 3.5%from the previous month. The increase in production in the Hebei River area was the largest, an increase of 173.53%from the previous month. The top five areas are Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei, and Tianjin, respectively, with an increase of 115,000 tons, 84,000 tons, 75,000 tons, 59,000 tons and 49,000 tons over February.
In the level of daily output changes, the daily average daily output changes in the first quarter of 2010 showed a V -shaped trend, consistent with the changes in 2008. According to the current situation of the steel mills that we know, the capacity utilization rate in April has entered the uplink cycle with the recovery of the market. We expect that the average daily output in April will still grow on the basis of March. The average daily output in March increased by 25.55%from the previous month.
The area of seamless pipes in the first quarter is mainly the three Eastern provinces. Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and Sichuan. Except for the scarce number of state -owned enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the remaining several areas are in the area where state -owned enterprises are located. Essence In general, the situation of insufficient orders for state -owned enterprises in the first quarter still exists, and the capacity utilization rate is still lower than the same period last year. Increasing Henan and Shandong regions with large output, due to the optimistic of the traders' pair of market outlook, increased the price in advance, increased orders to increase the production of the region.
. The seamless pipes and exports in my country increased year -on -year.
The seamless pipe exports in January and March increased significantly.
In the latest statistics of the customs, the exports were 278,700 tons in March 2010, an increase of 6,100 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 2.24%year -on -year. Compared with February, the export volume of seamless pipes in March increased, and the exports increased by 52,100 tons over the previous month, an increase of 22.99%month -on -month.
The variety of divided varieties, the export volume of oil and natural gas seamless pipes, petroleum natural gas drilling pipes has increased significantly from February, and the oil and natural gas tract seamless pipes, oil and natural gas drilling seamless pipes The increase of 28,700 tons and 15,200 tons from February; the seamless tube, boiler tube and other seamless tubes of geological drills decreased by 65.64 tons, 00,300 tons, and 74,200 tons compared with February.
The imports of seamless pipes in the 2nd and March increased slightly from the previous month.
The imported seamless tube in March 2010 was 21,900 tons, which was 16,000 tons from imports less than the same period last year, and a decrease of 42.22%year -on -year. It imported 0.21 million tons over February, an increase of 10.61%month -on -month.
The varieties, in March, the import volume of oil and natural gas seamless pipes, geological drill seams, boiler tubes and other seamless pipes increased from the previous month. Extraction of 00,900 tons, 88.98 tons, 44,000 tons, and 01,000 tons, an increase of 225%, 167.89%, 86.96%, and 15.15%from the previous month.
The import volume of seamless pipes of oil and gas drilling was reduced in February, which was 0.25 million tons from imports in February, and decreased by 30.86%from the previous month.
The imported proportion of imports is the boiler tube and other seamless tubes, which account for 39.27%and 34.25%of the import volume of the month. Increased, the import volume of geological drills in March increased by 88.98 tons from February, an increase of 167.879%from the previous month.
In April, the domestic seamless pipe market will be stable
In the domestic seamless pipe market continues to rise in April, the rise has slowed down significantly, showing a steady stability, showing a steady stability The current situation of high and small, and the market has obvious signs of high passivation stagnation. The situation of small market resources has not improved. At present, the management of the pipelines and production restrictions have not improved. After the factory prices are transferred from large pipe factories, the mainstream prices of private management factories have a stable quotation, which also restricts one of the main factors of market stability to a certain extent. The market is expected to be steadily adjusted in May.
1. The seamless pipe market needs in May are expected to be optimistic
entering May, and the demand for downstream seamless pipes will improve significantly. Especially in the environment where seamless pipe prices are rising rapidly in March and April, the downstream construction sites are mostly purchased in the current use of currently available, and the project has less stocking. As the construction volume of the project is enlarged, this part of the demand will be concentrated. Judging from the latest released data, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in fixed assets in cities and towns in the country in the first quarter increased by 26.4%year -on -year. At the same time, the value added value of industries above designated size in March increased by 18.1%year -on -year, which was 5.3 percentage points accelerated from February. Among them, the added value of general equipment manufacturing industries increased by 22.3%year -on -year, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from February; transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 30.1%, which was 1.7 percentage points accelerated from February. The monthly acceleration of 6.1 percentage points; the manufacturing industry of communications equipment and computers and electronic equipment increased by 19.5%, an acceleration of 2.9 percentage points from February; the production and supply industry of power thermal power increased by 13%, which was 2.7 percentage points accelerated from February; The pressure extension industry increased by 18%, which accelerated by 3 percentage points from February. This shows that after the negative impact of my country's economy getting rid of the global financial crisis, the endogenous power of economic growth has gradually recovered and continued to increase, and the demand for steel has continued to grow.
. Cost support seamless pipes are higher. The quarterly price of Japan and South Korea has been accepted by Japan and South Korea to purchase iron ore from the three major mines. This year's iron ore negotiation may also end in this form. According to the quarterly price signed by Japan and South Korea and Brazil Tamsui River Valley, the offshore price of the Brazilian mine is about $ 110 per ton, an increase of 96.4%over the 2009 -year -old cooperative price. At present, domestic steel companies are already using this price for procurement. If calculated by 96.4%of the increase, the annual cost expenditure of my country's steel industry will increase by about 90 billion yuan, and the profit of my country's steel industry in 2009 is only 69 billion yuan, which is self -evident. The sharp rise in the cost of steel mills has been unavoidable, which directly leads to an increase in the production cost of domestic steel mills nearly 1,000 yuan. Judging from the factory price of major domestic steel mills, on April 23, Tonggang Panshi rose 400 yuan to seamless pipe products. On April 19, Tianjin Steel Pipe Group rose 200 yuan for seamless pipe products. For the seamless pipe export price in May, the factory price was raised by 500 yuan. On the 19th, Pancheng Steel raised the factory price of seamless pipes by 200 yuan. On the 21st, Baosteel's overall price of seamless pipes was raised by 400 yuan. It will promote the market to further move closer to high positions.
3. High -priced resources limit demand for release
The high -level operation pressure in domestic steel market has begun to appear. Facing the price adjustment of steel mills, the dealers have begun to be afraid of high prices, right, right, right, right, right, right, right The views of the market are also very cautious. The price rising too fast has also triggered the wait -and -see psychology of end users. Many downstream industries can no longer bear the rise in price, and the procurement method generally converts it. Undoubtedly, some effective demand will be postponed or offset.
4. The United States imposes anti -dumping tax on seamless pipes in my country
The US Department of Commerce to set the punitive tariff rate of China's seamless steel pipe products at the United States on the 22nd to 32 %To 98%, the final ruling is expected to be issued in September. The decision is a victory of the American Iron and Steel Corporation (), V
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